India’s E-commerce Market Growth Forecast

India’s e-commerce market is set to significantly expand, with projections indicating a rise to $174–214 billion by FY30 from approximately $70 billion in FY25. This growth is attributed to enhanced internet access, an increase in online shoppers, demand from rural areas, and the development of digital payment systems, as reported by ICICI Securities. The report highlights that the digital commerce landscape in India has transformed dramatically over the last ten years, evolving from conventional online retail to hyperlocal and rapid commerce frameworks. Significant momentum in this sector emerged post-2016, driven by the proliferation of smartphones, UPI-based payment systems, and improved logistics networks.

The Covid-19 pandemic is acknowledged in the report as a pivotal factor that accelerated online shopping, particularly in the groceries and essentials segment, fostering widespread digital adoption throughout the nation.

E-commerce Penetration Expected to Reach 13% by FY30

The report states that India’s overall retail market was valued at around $978 billion in FY25, with e-commerce accounting for nearly 7%, or about $70 billion. By FY30, the retail sector is predicted to grow to $1.4–1.6 trillion, with e-commerce projected to represent 13% of the total market. Furthermore, it noted that the unorganised retail sector is anticipated to decrease from 79% in FY25 to 66% by FY30, as organised retail and online shopping continue to rise.

Rural India and Internet Expansion Fuel Demand

ICICI Securities identified the growth of internet connectivity, digital infrastructure, and the rise in usage in non-metro regions as key long-term drivers. Presently, India is home to nearly 970 million internet subscribers alongside approximately 500 million online shoppers. The report indicates that rural areas and tier II-IV cities are expected to account for over 60% of total e-commerce demand by 2026, signifying a shift in digital consumption beyond major urban centres.

Flipkart Leads in GMV and User Base

Among the leading companies, Flipkart maintains its top spot with an estimated 50–60% gross merchandise value (GMV) market share. The Walmart-owned firm also leads with monthly active users (MAUs), projected at around 220–240 million. ICICI Securities attributes Flipkart’s market leadership to its strength in high-value categories such as smartphones, appliances, and electronics, which together comprise approximately 63–64% of its overall business. The report also points to Flipkart’s internal logistics division, Ekart, the PhonePe-led payment ecosystem, and a seller network consisting of about 450,000 merchants.

Amazon India Holds Strong Position in Metro Areas

Amazone India is recognised as the second-largest player in the e-commerce arena, with an estimated 25–30% GMV market share and nearly 150 million monthly active users. The report highlights Amazon India’s robust presence in metropolitan areas and its dominance in categories like beauty, personal care, FMCG, and general merchandise. Currently, it offers around 180 million products across more than 100 categories and operates over 100 fulfilment centres in India. The brokerage also noted Amazon’s entry into quick commerce through Amazon Now as part of its expansion strategy.

Meesho Enhances the Value-Commerce Sector

Meesho is estimated to hold around 10% market share, attracting approximately 200 million monthly active users. The report describes Meesho as a prominent player in the value-commerce space, primarily targeting price-sensitive consumers in tier II and smaller cities. According to ICICI Securities, Meesho’s share of India’s e-retail GMV grew from roughly 5% in 2021 to more than 10% in 2025. However, the brokerage indicates that the company faces challenges in achieving profitability due to low-value order sizes coupled with higher delivery costs.

Smartphones Maintain Lead in E-commerce Categories

In terms of category-wise GMV contributions, smartphones continue to dominate India’s e-commerce market, accounting for 30–40% of total GMV. Appliances and electronics add another 20–30%, followed by fashion at 15–20%, general merchandise and groceries at 10–15%, and travel bookings at 8–12%. The report concludes that the limited household penetration in categories such as home appliances leaves ample opportunity for online retail growth in India.