Indian IT Firms Facing Risks from US Market Dependence
Indian IT firms might avoid the 25% tariffs proposed by Donald Trump, yet they are not out of trouble. A more significant and alarming concern looms: their heavy reliance on the U.S. market.
Sandeep Kundu, a technology expert based in Delhi, highlighted this issue in a widely circulated LinkedIn post. He stated that the core problem is not merely the tariffs but rather the risky strategy of depending on a single country for business.
India’s IT services generate over $200 billion in revenue each year, with more than half originating from clients in the U.S. Although services are exempt from tariffs under Trump’s trade agenda, Kundu points to a collection of emerging risks: increasingly stringent visa regulations, escalating costs, and a decline in client demand amidst rising inflation in America.
Kundu observed a significant rise in H-1B visa rejections, from 8% to 22%. He added that delays in onsite deployments are contributing to a 6-8% increase in project costs, while U.S. clients might further restrict technology budgets.
These figures align with broader industry insights. In FY2024, the U.S. represented 57% of the revenue for Indian IT firms. Some companies are even more vulnerable: Mphasis (82%), Persistent Systems (81%), LTIMindtree (75%), and HCL Tech (65%) depend heavily on U.S. clients.
The implications of this dependence are significant. Indian service providers are at risk of any economic, political, or regulatory disruption from Washington.
Kundu asserted that even if tariffs do not directly impact the industry, the mood and spending habits of clients can still be adversely affected. This alone has the potential to decelerate revenue growth and exert pressure on profit margins.
Indian IT corporations are making strides to diversify their markets—but this effort has been uneven. Early adopters have managed to decrease their U.S. reliance by 10 percentage points (from 62% to 52%), with notable revenue increases from Europe (11%) and the Middle East (18%). Nevertheless, the U.S. and Europe collectively account for over 80% of the sector’s exports.
This concentration leaves the industry vulnerable and exposed to unforeseen challenges.
Kundu concluded by stating that the true risk lies not in policy shifts but in concentration itself.