White-Collar Jobs in India: A Declining Trend and Future Implications

White-collar jobs in India are facing significant challenges, leading to significant consequences for the urban middle class. Saurabh Mukherjea, who is the founder of Marcellus Investment Managers, has provided a critical assessment, indicating that the growth model that has supported India’s professional landscape for over ten years is in jeopardy.

Alarming Shift in Job Growth

White-collar job growth previously stood at 11% annually. However, Mukherjea remarked that it has now plummeted to just 1% on a recent podcast. He noted that what used to double every six years has now stagnated remarkably.

Historical Context

Between 2010 and 2020, India saw a significant increase in white-collar employment, prominently fueled by the rapid growth in the information technology sector, business process outsourcing, and customer experience roles. Cities like Bengaluru, Pune, Hyderabad, and Gurugram became hubs, attracting educated professionals and promoting mass upward mobility leading to increased consumption.

Current Trends in Job Growth

This positive trend, however, has sharply declined. From 2023 to 2025, the annual growth in white-collar jobs is projected to remain stagnant at a mere 1%, signalling deeper structural issues rather than just a temporary dip.

Risks in Technology and Customer Experience Sectors

The immediate threats are seen primarily in technology and customer experience, the largest segments in India’s private sector, collectively accounting for around 8 million roles. Mukherjea referenced a joint study by NASSCOM, Boston Consulting Group, and NITI Aayog, which predicts that up to 2 million jobs — nearly 25% of the workforce — could be at risk by 2031 due to potential disruptions from artificial intelligence.

A Noteworthy Decline in the IT Sector

This is not a mere speculative outlook, as Mukherjea emphasized that the analysis comes from reputable think tanks and consultancies. Currently, warning signs are becoming evident. The IT sector, which had been growing at an average rate of 16% annually over the past decade, is now experiencing contraction with job growth declining by approximately 1% each year. Mukherjea highlighted that 10-12% of tech jobs are disappearing annually, primarily due to automation, AI advancements, and a slowdown in global demand.

Corporate Reactions to Market Changes

Major corporations are responding to these developments. Tata Consultancy Services has eliminated 12,000 positions in 2023 — this represents a small part of their total workforce but carries significant weight for a sector that has traditionally been viewed as a last resort for job creation. HCL Tech’s leadership has also discussed plans to double revenue while halving their workforce, indicating a clear shift away from labour-intensive practices.

Decrease in Job Postings and Broader Implications

According to the World Bank’s South Asia Development Update, there has been a 20% decline in job listings for tech and customer experience roles, with generative AI playing a substantial role in this decrease.

The Middle-Class Dilemma

Mukherjea cautioned that these effects will extend beyond the IT sector. Fields such as media, finance, legal services, and logistics — which are significant employers of white-collar workers — are poised to face similar challenges as efficiency gains facilitated by AI proliferate.

Red Flags for the Future

The NITI Aayog report has emerged as a critical warning, indicating a collection of pressing issues that all align in a concerning direction. For India’s middle class, these developments are serious. A slowdown in job creation could adversely affect wage growth, household spending, and opportunities for social mobility — all vital components supporting India’s economic growth over the last twenty years.

Mukherjea indicated that this is no longer just a prediction; it is a current reality. The urgent concern is how society will react to prevent irreversible damage.